“There’s no flesh or blood within this cloak to kill. There’s only an idea. Ideas are bulletproof.”
Alan Moore, V for Vendetta
Since the 2019 summer, Hong Kong has remained embroiled in a tense conflict with mainland China i.e. the Communist Party of China (CCP). The protestors are aiming to achieve five goals: 1) withdraw the extradition bill (discussed below); 2) for Carrie Lam to be removed from her position; 3) investigate police brutality that has occurred; 4) release those that have been arrested; and 5) greater democratic freedoms. As the days turned to weeks and weeks turned to months, the resolve of the protesters has failed to wane causing the CCP to take more extreme measures. Although the protestors succeeded in having the extradition bill shelved, a new bill that permits police to arrest any individual committing acts or activities that “threaten” national security has emerged to try and quell Hong Kong’s voice. Again, the resolve of the CCP can be seen in a recent action where it has labeled pro-democracy signs as supporting terrorism and allows for them to jail those that support this form of government. Democracy itself is anathema to the CCP and the CCP will not tolerate its establishment nor will it tolerate the complete independence of Hong Kong. Yet, the protestors persist.
Background
What is Hong Kong?
Hong Kong’s storied past has led to its current complex position. Hong Kong is a 426 square mi island located within the South China Sea along the eastern Pearl River Delta. The region was once sparsely populated and used mainly for agrarian purposes. This changed when China lost to Great Britain in the First Opium War in 1842 and was forced to cede the rights of Hong Kong to the British. In 1898, under the Second Convention of Nanking, the British expanded the duration of their authority over Hong Kong with a 99-year lease. With the aftermath of the Sino-Japanese War in 1937 and WWII in 1946, Hong Kong became an attractive location for refugees from China and surrounding states. Hong Kong’s economic nature changed through British reinvestment and introduction of a more stable civil society.Initially, Hong Kong’s infrastructure was premised on an agrarian model; however, with the introduction of successful textile industries it radically shifted. This led to Hong Kong developing quickly as an economic powerhouse in the region.
Hong Kong’s identity crises are inextricably tied to its economic success. Starting in the 1970’s Hong Kong’s Gross Domestic Product began to grow quickly, averaging around 8.9%, as more industries were introduced and foreign companies began to invest. This surge in investment leveled off throughout the ’80s and ’90s but changed drastically at the turn of the millennia. In 2000, foreign investments in Hong Kong passed $70.5B USD whereas in 1999 Hong Kong only saw $25.36B USD. What led to this loss of an economic lull? That would be the handover of Hong Kong from the British to the CCP in 1997. The transfer resulted in a complex framework labeled “one country, two systems.” The CCP recognized that Hong Kong would be a vital asset to their burgeoning economy, and disturbing its success would only hurt China’s collective economy moving forward. Under this system, the CCP would permit Hong Kong’s political system to remain in force, and for its judiciary and police forces to be independent. The one change came with “chief executives” replacing local governors from colonial powers. The chief executive would be elected from a 1,200 member electoral college from a pool of candidates that China had specifically approved. Furthermore, the chief executive would preside over a government system modelled off of Britain with the modification of a single legislative chamber. This bifurcated system of governance was to remain for 50 years, but it led many to wonder how long the CCP would permit democracy to grow in its own backyard.
Hong Kong has for generations clamored for its own independence. Since the implementation of the “one country, two systems” format in 1997, Hong Kong citizens have enjoyed a quasi-sense of freedom from the CCP’s policies. The bifurcation has allowed democracy to take root in Hong Kong, and Hong Kong’s youth perceive it to be a better form of governance than that of the CCP. When the CCP tries to exert influence over Hong Kong’s government or change its relationship the youth protest. This occurred in 2003 when more than 500,000 Hong Kong citizens protested legislation that would have prohibited treason, sedition, secession, and subversion against the CCP. Again, Hong Kong protested in 2012 when China attempted to shift Hong Kong’s education system to include the required study of China and adopting its national identity. Lastly, in 2014 Hong Kong was embroiled in a protest that dwarfed the previous two and was dubbed “The Umbrella Protest” due to protestors using umbrellas to shield themselves from tear gas. The protesters were seeking complete universal suffrage and wanted to be able to choose their candidates; however, China maintained the stance that the candidates would have to be vetted and approved by the CCP. Much like the Occupy Wall Street protests in the US, the Umbrella Protest saw the occupation of the busiest sections of the city and they refused to move for months clashing frequently with police. Despite the large showing the protest was weakened as its members resources were stretched thin and different ideologies behind the protest created internal fractures. Although these protests were hit or miss in achieving their stated goals, they have created the requisite platform needed for this current protest to be successful.
Hong Kung’s Current Status
“It matters not how strait the gate, how charged with punishments the scroll, I am the master of my fate, I am the captain of my soul.”
Invictus, William E. Henley.
Hong Kong has been protesting the CCP’s actions for over a year now. Learning from “The Umbrella Protest”, the current protestors have adopted a new model: be water. These protestors are no longer occupying busy areas for long durations nor suffering from internal schisms. Instead, they occupy en masse important areas of Hong Kong on the weekends, and readily adopt one another’s ideals preventing fracturing. This new model has proven to be a double-edged sword. The protestors have been successful in having controversial policies shelved. However, Hong Kong has around eight million residents, and when more than 25% of its residents, roughly two million people, actively speak with their feet China has to crack down to bolster its authority.
Hong Kong has pushed China to democratic brinkmanship. Since the handover in 1997, Hong Kong has been consistent in advocating for democratic ideals and countering Chinese influence over its people through protests. Hong Kong citizens know they are in a race against time as they will be losing what they value in 2047 when the “one country, two systems” format is to conclude. Each subsequent Hong Kong protest has built on top of each other in terms of size, severity, and duration. The CCP too recognizes that 2047 marks the conclusion of the bifurcated system; however, the CCP may perceive its actions as setting the framework for Hong Kong’s future absorption into the CCP. Either way each protest has escalated the ante for both parties as Hong Kong pushes harder, and the CCP counters with greater force or restrictions creating a vicious cycle. Much like the U.S. prior to the Revolutionary War, Hong Kong is repeatedly making statements to the CCP that it wants to be the captain of its own soul. To reclaim its soul at what length will Hong Kong go?
Achieving independence has a cost. Hong Kong has suffered repeatedly this past year from beatings on the metro from police, from vigilante beatings,and harsh laws being forced upon the citizenry to quell their voice. The people clamor for democracy, and the more they are repressed the more the world turns their attention to Hong Kong’s plight for independence. The CCP attempted first to physically intimidate the protestors to scare them from democracy, now they are attempting at attacking the idea of democracy. The CCP’s appointed leader in Hong Kong, Carrie Lam, has become a central target of the protestors. Carrie Lam supported the original extradition bill that started the protests, and continues to support the new national security law. The ramifications of this new bill are already being felt as a pro-democracy candidate from Hong Kong has been arrested for his stances.If you support democracy for Hong Kong from anywhere in the world you can be punished when you step onto Chinese soil. The CCP in the short term have been met with limited success, as states have issued warnings on how they report from the ground or provide questions. Journalism integrity and transparency has been infringed upon because the value of life has become a factor. But now things are changing for the long term.
Hong Kong’s actions has landed it in the middle of an economic heavyweight bout. Recently, the U.S. made a powerful move against China through the revocation of Hong Kong’s preferential trading status. With this gone, the U.S. can level sanctions on Hong Kong companies and officials further harming the Chinese economy. This U.S. executive order was a heavy right hook in an economic boxing match with China; however, this punch didn’t end the fight. It simply has encouraged China to swing back harder. China does not want foreign interference with their interactions with Hong Kong, and CCP have vowed a response for the U.S.’s executive order. China is aware that this order will negatively impact its economy, but it too is aware that it will be detrimental to the U.S. Hundreds of U.S. companies rely on Hong Kong, and Hong Kong has invested billions into the U.S. economy. By harming China, the U.S. has harmed itself. Both countries will bleed, and it will be a game of chicken until one bandages up and says no more or the referee blows their whistle.
Hong Kong wants its own sovereignty, but at what cost? Their fight is no longer confined to their shores but has grown to its neighbor Taiwan, to the White House in the U.S. and in other continents. The U.K.’s Foreign Secretary stated that the national security law constitutes “a clear violation of the autonomy of Hong Kong and a direct threat to the freedoms of its people.” After this proclamation, the U.K. stated it would allow for Hong Kong citizens to use their British Nationals Overseas status to immigrate to the U.K. and become citizens. Recently, Australia joined the conversation and is providing extended five-year visas for skilled and graduate-level Hong Kong citizens to immigrate and become full Australian citizens. The U.S. took an economic approach in holding the CCP accountable, and it may come at a great cost. Other states are now at the moral, economic crossroads the U.S. once stood. Option A – should they make a formal stance denigrating China’s actions and face economic reprisals that could alter their economy for years; or Option B – should they informally step away from China and preserve their economic relationships preventing economic instability? More countries will take option B as most do not have economies that could withstand heavy hits from China. Even if they don’t take Option A, the unified disdain for China and support for Hong Kong will create difficult impasses for the CCP and more opportunities for democracy to deepen to Hong Kong citizens.
Democracy and sovereignty. Since the 19th century, Hong Kong has been ruled by one master and then handed to another. It wants to rule itself. It wants to be its own captain. Through self-rule, Hong Kong wants to operate under a democratic system. The CCP has allowed Hong Kong to taste democracy, but Hong Kong no longer wants a taste. Hong Kong wants full immersion. Hong Kong has voiced their opposition to Carrie Lam and to the CCP and their voices will not be stymied. As time marches forward towards 2047 brinkmanship between the CCP and Hong Kong will not abate. It will grow more contentious as Hong Kong emboldens their stances for democracy and the CCP further restricts basic human rights in an effort to deter this idea from spreading. The U.S.’s, the U.K.’s, and Australia’s critical responses will hurt China’s economy and its relations with the international community. China will continue to strike back against these states, and they will respond in kind. Hong Kong will grow bolder in its actions against the CCP as more states join this chorus. This shows that the world hears those in Hong Kong, but the approach isn’t unified. These independent actions are effective short term, but long term without a unified plan to counter Chinese influence they will fall short. To help Hong Kong those states that oppose China should emulate the protestors. Be unified in their stance, endure the hits, and be clear about their demands. Until a unified front is made, until democracy is achieved, Hong Kong will continue to show the world that it will not go quietly into the night.
Gage Dabin is a rising 3L at George Mason University, Antonin Scalia Law School in Arlington, Virginia. Mr. Dabin currently serves as the External Affairs Editor for the National Security Law Journal and the Operations Director for the Mason Intelligence and National Security Law Association. Mr. Dabin received his undergraduate degrees in Political Science with an emphasis in international relations and English from Centenary College of Louisiana. Mr. Dabin is currently interning with USAF JAG and hopes to become a JAG officer upon completion of law school.